CansoWorsening economic crisis and Eclipse demise will have severe impact on VLJ market
December 1, 2008. Prospects for the very light jet (VLJ) market for the next ten years (2008 and 2017) have declined sharply over the last few weeks, according to a new report from VLJ market analyst PMI Media Ltd. In its latest study The Very Light Jet Market 2008-2017: The impact of the global financial crisis released after the announcement by Eclipse Aviation to file for bankruptcy, PMI Media is forecasting the delivery of 4,610 VLJs, worth around $9.54 billion in 2008 prices, between 2008-2017. This is some 1,360 fewer aircraft than in the previous forecast of October 2008.
PMI Media tracks the VLJ market through analysing supplier order backlogs and purchasing trends by air taxi, corporate and individual aircraft operators.
"Given the current difficult market circumstances it is difficult to see how more than one or two new aircraft entrants — outside established aircraft manufacturers such as Embraer, Diamond, PiperJet, Cessna — will be able to survive a prolong period of market uncertainty," according to PMI-Media's editorial director Philip Butterworth-Hayes.
The economic turmoil is also having a major impact on the fledgling air taxi industry. Air taxi operators have planned orders for 1,062 VLJs, according to the PMI Media study, even after the demise of market leader DayJet in October. "However, many of these are proving more aspirational than real. But as they still represent about a third of all orders for VLJs any further air taxi the next few months could prove critical to both industries."
PMI Media's The Very Light Jet Market 2008-2017: The impact of the global financial crisis forecasts annual VLJ deliveries broken down into aircraft type and geographic spread. It also lists forecast annual delivery values, based on the list prices of aircraft and compound estimated currency inflation rates. Data is gathered from aircraft manufacturers, aircraft operators, regulatory bodies and financial organizations - this is then compared with other "high-level" forecasts and the final estimates are calculated, taking into account historic fluctuations in the aviation market.
The Very Light Jet Market 2008-2017 is available from December 1, 2008 at a cost of $650.00. For more information please visit www.pmi-media.com or contact Philip Butterworth-Hayes on +44 1273 724 238, mobile +44 7778 030 633, email philip.Butterworth-Hayes@pmi-media.com.
VLJ market contracts but fundamentals still strong, according to new market survey
October 2, 2008. The market for very light jets (VLJs) for the next ten years (2008 and 2017) stands at 5,970 aircraft, according to the third annual survey of the VLJ market by UK aviation consultants PMI Media Ltd.
"This is a fall of just under 800 aircraft over our last ten-year forecast in May this year," said PMI Media's Editorial Director Philip Butterworth-Hayes," and is a result of new uncertainties in the global financial markets, the collapse of DayJet and a growing number of manufacturers chasing a shrinking number of customers."
"Despite the recent turmoil, the fundamentals in the VLJ market are still strong," said Butterworth-Hayes. "This is now a $1.25 billion annual market, measured over 10 years. Demand for Cessna Mustangs and Embraer Phenom 100s is resilient and Eclipse Aviation's new business plan - based on cutting costs rather than ramping up production - is starting to bear fruit."
PMI Media forecasts that deliveries will peak in 2011 just as new aircraft such as the HondaJet, Eclipse EA400 and Cirrus SJ50 will enter the market. "The problem remains that there are at least ten manufacturers chasing a market which can probably support just six or seven - given the high development and production costs of these aircraft," said Butterworth-Hayes.
PMI's The Very Light Jet Market 2008-2017 forecasts annual VLJ deliveries broken down into aircraft type and geographic spread. It also lists forecast annual delivery values, based on the list prices of aircraft and compound estimated currency inflation rates. Data is gathered from aircraft manufacturers, aircraft operators, regulatory bodies and financial organizations - this is then compared with other "high-level" forecasts and the final estimates are calculated, taking into account historic fluctuations in the aviation market.
The Very Light Jet Market 2008-2017 will be available on October 30 at a cost of $650.00. For more information please visit www.pmi-media.com or contact Philip Butterworth-Hayes on +44 1273 724 238, mobile +44 7778 030 633, email phayes@mistral.co.uk.
Migration of aerospace manufacturing to low-wage economies "overstated" according to new study
September 25, 2008. North American and European manufacturers are migrating only low-value aerospace manufacturing operations to low-wage economies, according to a new study by aviation consultants PMI Media Ltd.
In the first of a series of surveys on global aerospace manufacturing activities, which focuses on China, PMI Media concludes that China and other low-wage manufacturing economies have not yet made the leap from supplying structures to supplying major aircraft sub-systems - such as fuel, pneumatic, electrical and environmental control systems – where the real value is in the global aviation supply chain.
"Chinese companies registered around $700 million worth of component and structural work on North American and European airliner programmes in 2007; in contrast, Parker won business estimated at $3.5 billion in July 2008 for the single contract to supply Bombardier with a fly-by-wire control system on the new CSeries airliner," according to PMI Editorial Director Philip Butterworth-Hayes.
"There is also a significant lack of Chinese work within the business jet segment, a major area of consistent growth. And China's prospects for further major inroads into the global aerospace competitive marketplace, beyond the Airbus A350XWB, are likely to be dimmed in the coming years as the number of major new aircraft programmes dries up," according to Butterworth-Hayes.
The study, which is freely available at www.pmi-media.com, is the first in a series of reports which analyse the development of aircraft manufacturing industries in low-wage economies. The next study, which looks at Mexico's aerospace industry, will be available at the end of 2008.
For more information please contact: Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Editorial Director of PMI Media on + 44 1273 724 238, or via phayes@mistral.co.uk.
PMi Media launches air traffic management newsletter
March 10, 2008. PMi-Media Ltd, the Anglo-German aviation publishing company, have announced the launch of a new electronic air traffic management news and analysis publication ATM Insight.
"This is a new type of publication, an electronic business-to-business magazine offering a unique insight into the global ATM industry," said Philip Butterworth-Hayes, editor of ATM Insight.
ATM Insight is distributed free of charge every two weeks to over 3,000 ATM personnel from all sides of the industry: ANSP and manufacturing industry management, control centre workforce and support staff, regulators and government officials. The electronic publication will cover:
- ATM industry news
- Analysis of markets - ANSP revenue earning activities as well as manufacturing
- New business opportunities
- Recruitment opportunities
- Investigative reporting
Full text of the publication is available at www.atm-insight.com.
For more information please contact: Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Editorial Director of PMi Media on + 44 1273 724 238, or via Philip.butterworth-hayes@pmi-media.com.
Specialist niche suppliers "catching up" with raw materials producers and systems integrators in the aviation supply chain value business
November 2nd, 2007 PMI-Media. The main winners in the global aviation manufacturing sector - in terms of contract value and securing long-term business streams - are still raw materials suppliers and systems integrators, according to a new study by PMi-Media, The Aviation Supply Chain Database. But producers of niche products such as power distribution systems and smart actuator systems have seen the value of their business rise at much faster rate over recent years.
"If you break down where the money is going within the Boeing 787 supply chain, for example," said PMi-Media's Editorial Director Philip Butterworth-Hayes, "then it is predominantly to systems and structures integrators such as Hamilton Sundstrand ($8 billion plus), Vought ($5 billion plus), Goodrich ($4 billion plus), Honeywell ($2.8 billion plus) and Parker ($1 billion) or raw materials suppliers such as Toray Industries ($6 billion). But these values no longer overshadow the amounts being earned by single structure and sub-systems suppliers. For example, Japan's Jamco - which is supplying galleys, lavatories, flight deck door and bulkhead, and flight deck linings, consoles and stowage - will be earning more than $1 billion from the Boeing 787, as will Zodiac, from France, which is supplying a range of niche components."
The Aviation Supply Chain Database analysis of the Boeing 787 (available free at the PMi-Media website www.pmi-media.com) also shows the geographic spread of aircraft systems manufacturing - most recently with new plants being opened up in countries such as Mexico and Thailand.
"Yet the aerospace companies are moving much more slowly than organizations in other manufacturing sectors to take advantage of low-cost labour rates," said Butterworth-Hayes. "If you look where the high-value work is concentrated it still remains in the traditional aircraft manufacturing areas such as Washington state - even though companies that undertake the work have new names. The power of aircraft manufacturing clusters remains potent - with very few Indian companies, for example, supplying parts to the Boeing 787."
The Aerospace Supply Chain Database (ASCD) lists every major aircraft in production and analyses the relationship between the suppliers. It identifies where each supplier sits within the supply chain, the value of the contract with suppliers and customers (where in the public domain), the length of the contract and the location where the work takes place.
PMi Media is an Anglo-German aviation research and publishing company.
For more information on report's findings please contact Philip Butterworth-Hayes on +44 1273 724 238, mobile +44 7778 030 633, email phayes (at) pmi-media.com.
For order information please visit www.pmi-media.com, or contact Rainer Vogel on +49 7305 927292 or rainer.vogel (at) pmi-media.com.
7,650 VLJs to be delivered during 2007-2016 despite new market uncertainties
September 14th, 2007 PMi-Media. A total of 7,650 very light jets (VLJs) will be delivered between 2007 and 2016, according to the second edition of PMi-Media Limited's market-tracking research survey The Very Light Jet Market 2007-2016: A critical analysis of trends, challenges and solutions. The market for these aircraft will be worth around $18.36 billion over this period, according to the report. Read more...
Airline fuel-saving strategies "can outpace forecast airline greenhouse gas emissions" - new report
May 1, 2007 PMi-Media. Airlines, airports and air navigation service providers will be able to cut civil aircraft emission levels by more than 6% a year for the next ten years by adopting a range of new operating procedures, according to a new report Aviation growth and global warming, produced by independent Anglo-German aerospace information company PMi Media Ltd. These potential savings are greater than the forecast rise in traffic levels over 2007-2017. Read more...
VLJ market long term prospects improve, despite Eclipse problems
March 9, 2007 PMi Media. The very light jet (VLJ) order book now stands at 4,010 aircraft, with 14 aircraft types competing in this new aviation sector, according to latest VLJ forecast from aerospace consultants PMi Media. Read more...
PMi Media announces new very light jet (VLJ) regular market analyses
November 10, 2006 PMi Media. The UK-German aerospace and defence market analysis company, today announces the launch of a new analysis service, a six times a year review of the developing very light jet market. Read more...
Very Light Jet Market Will Be Worth Over $2.5 Billion Over The Next Five Years
Cheltenham, October 16, 2006. The new study on the very light business jet (VLBJ)- or microjet - market by global aviation consultants PMi Media Ltd. has just been released. This 156-pages (A 4) report is available in print and/or electronic format. Read more...
